It is alarming to see the spread of Taliban control on the Pakistani side of the border, to see the movement gain greater influence and attract more recruits, both locals and foreign (from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Saudi Arabia, Chechnya, Yemen, Sudan and other countries), and to see the effect on the communities in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The government controls the country, but only in theory; a completely different system of administration is found here. Foreign members of the Jihad movement have exploited the local tradition which had always accepted tribes in this area as a State within the State. Now, with warmongering mullahs and mosques, the Taliban have begun to poison the minds of the younger generation, young men often uneducated and unemployed. For traffickers and local villains this was an opportunity for them to improve their social status and become heroes of Islam. And there are also financial considerations: most communities in tribal areas live in abject poverty, barely surviving. Many, if not all of them feel a great sense of frustration and discontent. Money handed out to families of newly indoctrinated youths has been accepted as a positive message.

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The establishment of the Taliban movement was a serious error in judgment. During the war between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union (1979-1988), the CIA helped set up the Mujahideen, the Soldiers of God; in 1994 the ISI, the Pakistani intelligence agency, set up the Taliban to control neighboring Afghanistan(1). Both the Americans and Pakistanis were convinced that they would easily control their own invention, and forever – an ominous mistake. The monster escaped all attempts to keep it under control, and it turned on its master. More recently, the ISI supported first Nek Muhammad, the Taliban leader of the Wazir tribe, and then Baitullah Mehsud, the Taliban leader of the Mashud tribe, to gain their support in eliminating foreign elements which had settled in the country, and in the vain hope of winning their loyalty. These two were from very modest backgrounds and their advancement upset the balance of the tribal system. The importance shown to them and their image as “Robin Hood” figures had major repercussions on both sides of the Durand Line(2). The tribal leaders whose families had decided on absolutely everything for centuries, were suddenly sidelined. Anyone casting doubt on the authority of the new leaders met with death – a brutal death. This was the result of the lack of leadership in the region and the loss of any trust that might have been placed in the government and its stated intentions. It is now very difficult for the central authorities to rally any effective support from the Tribal Lashkars (tribal militias) to fight the Taliban, and many people feel that the government will simply abandon them any and every time it changes policy.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto showed the world just how much damage Baitullah Mehsud could cause. He has a supply of suicide bombers ready to act if and when he chooses. He is based in South Waziristan, and has very efficient control of underground activities, having acts of terrorism perpetrated in any part of the country. Previously Baitullah only operated in tribal areas, but he now has assistants, known as Naib Ameers, who have extended their scope of action to areas where sedentary communities live, and he is backed by substantial organizational resources, such as kidnapping and ransom demands. The very term Taliban strikes such fear into the people that families would never dare lodge a complaint with the authorities.

The Taliban systematically stop all news and information from circulating; they bomb cybercafés and record shops, and make sure that the population has no idea of what is happening around the world. Hundreds of schools were destroyed in 2008, and in areas under Taliban control, any woman venturing out without a male escort is charged with immoral behavior and flogged.

Attacks on vehicles of the allied forces driving along Pakistani roads to deliver supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan have also increased. The Taliban strike, they strike hard, and they decide when to strike.

The new presidency in the United States has occurred at a critical point in history. President Obama has to cope with a very difficult legacy in the form of decisions and actions undertaken by the previous administration. It can only be hoped, in all sincerity, that the decision-makers in Washington and Islamabad show greater caution: the situation, in Pakistan, a nuclear power, must not degenerate into instability and chaos. Both countries must make concerted efforts to avoid such a fate. In these turbulent times, the world cannot afford to see the Pakistani State fail. The repercussions would be enormous, and the consequences disastrous.

Sarah Caron

(1) At the end of the Soviet-Afghan war, a decade of internecine fighting ensued, tearing Afghanistan apart. Pashtun tribes on the east of the Durand line (in Pakistan) intervened to defend the Afghan Pashtuns, and with support from the ISI to counter any attempts along the border to destabilize Pakistan.

(2)The Durand Line, set by the British and officially recognized on November 12, 1893, runs along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, dividing the Pashtun tribes.

Sarah Caron

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