Kashmir. Wait & See
Cédric Gerbehaye
Since the bloody partition of the Indian subcontinent that was hastily decided in 1947, Kashmir has become one of the most militarized regions in the world, and the scene of multiple wars between India, which is predominantly Hindu, and Pakistan, which is predominantly Muslim. These two nuclear powers are fighting over a territory that is at the heart of a mountainous, geopolitical crossroads. It is one of the oldest disputes managed by the United Nations. The contested territory is divided into three regions: Jammu and Kashmir, administered by India, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, administered by Pakistan.
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In 1948, the Kashmiri people were supposed to vote in a referendum to decide whether to join India or Pakistan, but the referendum never took place. At the end of the 1980s, following elections that were rigged by India, an armed struggle supported by Pakistan began in the Kashmir Valley. In reaction, India adopted the Armed Special Power Act giving its armed forces special powers. The 600,000 soldiers that it has deployed in the region are considered by the Kashmiris to be an occupying force responsible for the deaths of 70,000 civilians and the disappearance of 8,000 people. More and more young people see violence as the only option to combat the Indian State which has committed many human rights violations.
In the villages along the Line of Control, the de facto border that runs 740 km across the Himalayas, partition is not a detail on a map. It separates families and causes civilians to be injured and killed. This is a high-altitude conflict with artillery fire from both sides.
In 2019, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, made a historic move by revoking the semi-autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir; opening the possibility of Hindu settlement in the territory and paving the way for demographic change.
In addition to being territorial, there are also strategic and vital issues at stake here. The Indus River Treaty, which guarantees that water is shared between the two countries, is once again under threat from India. The river flows through Gilgit-Baltistan, a territory with diverse mountain peoples with their own identity. Driven by economic ambitions, China also controls part of Kashmir – the Aksai Chin region – and is financing the reconstruction of the Karakoram Highway in Gilgit-Baltistan, which is part of its New Silk Road program and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
After several years of relative calm, tensions were reignited in April 2025 by a deadly attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Indian authorities immediately accused Pakistan who denied being involved and called for an independent investigation. Two weeks later, India launched missile strikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
At the center of this intractable conflict, a long-suffering and divided population has been waiting for almost eight decades for a referendum to be held to determine the final status of their territory, and consequently, their future existence.
Cédric Gerbehaye
With support from National Geographic Magazine and National Geographic Society. Thanks to Patrick Codomier, Jamie Wellford and Cyril Drouhet.
